Saturday, November 3, 2012

2012-13 Season Preview

The Nets made a multitude of moves this off-season that completely transformed the team as they make their way into the Barclays Center. .his is the first season in Brooklyn after thirty five seasons in New Jersey. Billy King possibly could have put together the best off-season in Nets history depending on the results of this season. In this season preview, I will review the Nets additions and subtractions, as well as rate each position on a scale of 1-10, 1 being bad, 5 being average and 10 being excellent, I will then explain why I hold this position. Finally, I will project a record.

Additions: Joe Johnson, C.J. Watson, Tyshawn Taylor, Tornike Shengelia, Mirza Teletovic, Reggie Evans, Andray Blatche, Keith Bogans, Josh Childress, Jerry Stackhouse

Subtractions: Jordan Farmar, Gerald Green, Shelden Williams, Anthony Morrow, Armon Johnson, Sundiata Gaines, Johan Petro, Jordan Williams, DeShawn Stevenson, Damion James

Coaches: Avery Johnson (Head Coach), P.J Carlesimo, Mario Elie, Popeye Jones, Doug Overton

Projected Depth Chart:
PG: Deron Williams / CJ Watson / Tyshawn Taylor
SG: Joe Johnson / MarShon Brooks / Keith Bogans
SF: Gerald Wallace / Josh Childress / Tornike Shengelia / Jerry Stackhouse
PF: Kris Humphries / Mirza Teletovic / Reggie Evans
C: Brook Lopez / Andray Blatche

Position Ratings

Point Guard
The point guard position is definitely the Nets biggest strength this season. The combo of Williams and Watson will likely be the anchor of the team. Deron Williams is considered a top five point guard in the league and will have a different role this year then he did last year. Williams had to be the scorer due to the lack of talent around him last season. He had to take a lot more shots than he's used to and as a result shot a low percentage. He also tried to force things which resulted in a high turnover rate. Now, Deron can be a distributor once again with the additions of Johnson as well as getting Brook Lopez back. I expect Williams to thrive in a role that he is used to. He will have higher assist numbers and his scoring numbers will go down, but he will score more efficiently. Expect a lot of penetration and dishing out to the open shooter from Williams, as well as a lot more open shots now that he has more scoring options around him. Watson will be the spark off the bench that the Nets need, as he is a high energy guy that plays stingy defense and can push the ball up the floor. He is an excellent shooter with a 39% clip from three point range. The knock on Watson is that he is not a good distributor at the point guard position, however he is an upgrade over Farmar, the Nets back-up last year. Tyshawn Taylor is perceived to be a good defender, but likely wont see lots of playing time in his rookie year.

Rating: 10

This unit deserves a perfect ranking because it is arguably the best point guard combo in the league. Watson has shown from his time in Chicago that he can be a great replacement if Williams gets injured, and Williams' game speaks for itself. Expect the offense to run through Williams when he is on the floor with Watson setting the tempo off the bench for the Nets.

Shooting Guard
The addition of Joe Johnson in late June possibly sealed the deal for Williams to stay in Brooklyn. Johnson is a six-time All-Star that led the Atlanta Hawks to the playoffs for five straight seasons as their best player. Johnson is always knocked for his humongous contract in which he is owed $89 million over the next four years. This is widely perceived as the most albatross contract in the NBA. Back in Atlanta, Johnson was in a situation that he is not comfortable with: being the guy. Now in Brooklyn, he isn't the best player on his team anymore, so I expect him to settle into his new role nicely. Johnson is a great fit next to Williams because he take pressure off him, and it won't be as easy doubling Williams or Lopez as it was in the past since Johnson is a deadly scorer from the perimeter. Johnson can score in a multitude of ways, including with his back to the basket. As a shooting guard, he is pretty large. Standing at 6'8" and weighing 225 pounds, he is almost as big a Kris Humphries, the team's power forward, which gives Johnson a huge size advantage over defenders. Expect a lot of open looks on the perimeter for Johnson now that he has an elite point guard, which is fantastic because he shot 38% from deep last season, and he shot 47% from three point range the only time he ever had an elite point guard, in the 05-06 season with Steve Nash. Johnson is also an underrated defender. MarShon Brooks had a surprising rookie season last year, averaging 12.6 ppg in 29 mpg. He is now the sixth man as opposed to being the starter, so now he assumes the role of being the scoring punch of the bench. Brooks could possibly be the most important piece of the bench, due to his scoring capabilities  Brooks lacks a defensive game and takes a lot of shots, which results in a low field goal percentage. Expect Brooks' numbers to go down due to less touches. The deepest SG on the depth chart, Keith Bogans, will likely see limited minutes but is a very good defender, which will keep him out of Avery's dog house.

Rating: 8

The shooting guard position is another strength for the Nets. Johnson could have one of his best season opposite of Williams and is a candidate for yet another All-Star appearance. I wouldn't call this unit excellent because Brooks has to take the next step on defense. He has a massive wingspan for his height which should translate into more steals and blocks, however his awareness on defense is suspect. He is often lost in defensive sets which hurts the Nets. He also needs to gain a better shot selection and pass the ball when a shot is not there, rather than pump-fake several times before hoisting a contested jumper.

Small Forward
The Nets re-signed Gerald Wallace to a massive four year, $40 million contract which was a head-scratcher for many. However, Wallace's role on this team is very underrated. Wallace is the best defender in the line-up and will likely have to guard the opponents best scorer every night. He is athletic and is a notorious hustle player. He received the nickname "Crash" due to his aggressive style of play. He will make the extra effort for a loose ball or rebound and rarely gives up on a play. This is what allows him to be such a great defense, as his hustle turns him into a hard-nosed defender. Wallace's quickness allows him to stay with most opponents and he rarely gets bullied by bigger players. He doesn't have a wide variety of moves on offense and is seen as a slasher. He should benefit from having Williams as his point guard. One negative about Wallace is that he shoots to many three's, which is not his strength. He shot just 30% from deep last season. To back up Wallace, the Nets brought in Josh Childress. Childress was a victim of the amnesty clause, as he was waived by the Phoenix Suns who have to pay almost all of his remaining salary. He was a high impact player for the Atlanta Hawks before he departed overseas, averaging over 10 ppg every year he was in Atlanta. After his return from Greece, he produced two lackluster seasons with the Suns. Childress overall is a good defender and has his moments on offense. The Nets bought Tornike Shengelia from the Philadelphia 76ers in the draft and they think highly of him. He is from Georgia and had a strong showing in the Summer League. He relies on athleticism, which could potentially translate into valuable defense, and is a good rebounder for his position. Despite this, his main weaknesses is his shooting ability, but with sitting on the end of the small forward depth chart, it should not be too much a concern for now.

Rating: 6

This is the Nets weakest position in terms of depth. Wallace is a solid starter but once he goes to the bench nothing is certain. Childress' production has fallen significantly since coming back from Greece and Shengelia is the youngest player on the team while Stackhouse is the oldest. There are a lot of question marks about the players backing up Wallace however if Childress becomes the player he was before he went overseas, that can change.

Power Forward
Kris Humphries was brought back for yet another year after two solid seasons for the Nets. Humphries finally got his payday with a 2 year, $24 million contract. Humphries averaged a double-double in each of the last two season while being one of the best rebounders in the league. He had an expanded role last year and was asked to take more shots due to injuries which took him out of his natural role. This year, Humphries will likely be the fifth option and will only have to take 6-8 shots per game. His new role is to rebound, which is needed next to Lopez who is known as a questionable rebounder. Humphries rebounds with the best of them, as he was in the top 10 in terms of rebounding percentage the past two years. In the 2010-11 season, he was third overall in total rebounding percentage rebounding 22% of the available rebounds on the floor, which ended being higher than Dwight Howard's. He is a decent help defender but needs to work on his man to man defense along with his defensive awareness. Mirza Teletovic came over from Europe where he was the top scorer in all of the Euroleague. He is a gunner from three and is known to take a lot of shots. Teletovic has some serious range and will take the shot from a couple of feet behind the three point line, and make them. He has very good athleticism for his size and has decent post moves. Teletovic is mainly a stretch forward and won't rebound the ball very much, and on some nights his shot just won't fall (see: preseason). One important factor that he will provide to the Nets is that he will stretch the floor, allowing easier penetration in the lane for the guards. He also won't provide much defense. Reggie Evans was brought in for one thing, rebounding. Evans is one of the better rebounders in the league and crashes the glass with force. He has pulled together a high total of rebounds per game in very limited minutes. For instance, in the 2010-11 season Evans grabbed 11.5 rpg in just 26 mpg. Evans won't provide much offense, and he has one of the worst offensive skill sets in the league which makes him a complete liability on that end of the floor. You can expect the same on defense.

Rating: 6

With the combination of Humphries and Evans, you get one of the toughest tandems in the league at the position. These two never give up on a play and are known for their work ethic and hustle. On most nights the Nets wont be out-rebounded at this position, which is vital because they lack rebounding at Center. The problem with these two is that they dont provide much offense, and that's where Teletovic comes in. If Teletovic settles in to his role and provides an offensive spark off the bench, this can be a good unit, however they are suspect on defense. Teletovic is an important part to this Nets team because he is their only source of offense at this position. If he doesn't perform to equal standards as former fan favorite Gerald Green, whom the Nets let go of to sign Teletovic, he will be a disappointment in fans eyes.

Center
This was a position of controversy for the Nets last year for many reasons. Brook Lopez played just five games last year after going down with a fractured foot during a  preseason game against the Knicks. This would put a damper on the Nets for the entire season because they lost their big man presence in the middle. Lopez, despite popular belief is one of the better centers in the league and can score in a multitude of ways. Just his presence on the court alone gives the Nets a huge advantage because he demands double teams. Few NBA Centers can stop Lopez from scoring the basketball because he has many ways to score. He can shoot the jumper, face up on his opponents or put his back to the basket, he is a nightmare to defensive schemes and commands a lot of attention. Lopez must improve upon passing out of double teams, this has been an area of struggle for Lopez since his rookie season. Since many big men are unable to guard Lopez one on one, he will be doubled a lot, and making successful passes to the open shooter on the perimeter is vital to the Nets offense because the Nets have many good shooters. The main topic of discussion about Lopez is his rebounding struggles. It is unclear why his rebounding numbers have taken such a plummet, he went from averaging close to 9 rpg to 6 rpg in his last full season. He had a total rebounding percentage of just 10% in the 2010-11 season, which is unacceptable for a seven footer. He must improve his rebounding to become an elite center. Lopez is generally a decent man defender, however his help defense is atrocious, he is often lost within defensive schemes which leads to many easy buckets at the rim. The Nets signed amnesty victim Andray Blatche to be Lopez's back-up. Blatche had a controversial season in Washington last year which was filled with injury, he is also known to be a headcase. Blatche has been mostly uncoachable throughout his career and is known more for his bonehead plays than his good ones. Blatche is looking for a new start in Brooklyn and has bought into the system so far. He has not been an efficient scorer throughout his career but has shown potential on both the offensive and defensive end. I expect a breakout year for Blatche.

Rating: 7

Though Lopez is one of the better Centers in the NBA, I wont give this unit an excellent rating. Lopez must improve on his defense, defense from the Center position is a vital part to a championship. The rebounding at this position is also below average, neither Lopez or Blatche has proven they can rebound at a consistent rate. Lopez is the X-Factor this season, the Nets performance this year hinges on his progression.

Team Review
Billy King has put together one of the most talented teams in Nets history. This unit is poised to be an offensive power house this season centered around superstar point guard Deron Williams. He is their leader and will control the offense. The backcourt of Williams and Johnson is possibly the best in the league, and when you add in Watson and Brooks, they make it the best backcourt rotation in the league as well. The play of the guards will carry the Nets this season because it is their biggest strength, both on offense and defense. It will be up to Williams and Johnson to set the tone for this team because they are the core. The starting five for the Nets is one of the best in the league, Mikhail Prokhorov spent a lot of money on this lineup which consists of ten all star appearances. This team is well put together, the pieces mesh well unlike some of the other teams in the league. There are some glaring weaknesses on this team, however. The most apparent one is interior defense, this team doesn't have one reliable rim protector in the lineup or on the bench. Expect the Nets to give up a lot of points in the paint this year, which will cost them a lot of games. Interior defense is especially important against the defending champion Miami Heat, who the Nets will likely have to beat to get to the Finals. Having good interior defense keeps both LeBron James and Dwayne Wade out of the paint and forces them to shoot, which is their weakness however with the Nets lack of interior defense, they will get a lot of easy points at the rim. Another weakness is the bench, there are many question marks. The only stability that the Nets have off the bench is C.J Watson, because even MarShon Brooks isn't a lock to produce in his new role. How the bench performs will make or break the Nets this season. Don't expect for this team to get off to a fast start, the team needs time to gel. I predict that the Nets will play .500 basketball until mid December, then they will really get it going. I think the Nets should get to the Eastern Conference Finals but will end up getting swept by the Miami Heat. Getting that far in itself can be seen as a successful season.

Prediction: 49-33, 2nd in Atlantic, 4th in Eastern Conference
                  Loss to Miami Heat in Eastern Conference Finals (0-4)

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